War comes to the home front: how drone attacks quietly but radically reshape Russia’s economy and daily life

Oil rain destroys local crops and puts people’s health at risk

 

Drone attacks on fuel infrastructure between April and June 2026 resulted in oil rain across several Russian regions. Russians use this term to describe black precipitation containing petroleum byproducts released into the atmosphere by fires at oil refineries. The phenomenon was reported in Tuapse, Perm, Ryazan, Rybinsk, and the Moscow suburbs of Balashikha and Lyubertsy. Environmental expert Igor Shkradyuk said such fallout can affect areas within 20 to 60 kilometers of the fire.

The danger posed by this type of precipitation depends on what exactly was burning, whether crude oil, fuel oil, diesel fuel, or gasoline, as well as on the chemical composition of the rain itself. According to Shkradyuk, Rospotrebnadzor, Russia’s federal consumer protection agency, does not publish the results of analyses of the chemical fallout, making it impossible to determine its precise impact.

"The most dangerous components of oil rain are polyaromatic and aromatic hydrocarbons. They are called aromatic because they have a strong smell. Simply put, the stronger the smell of the oil rain, the more harmful it is," Shkradyuk said.

Petroleum fumes and soot released into the air by fires at fuel facilities can enter the lungs and bloodstream. Shkradyuk believes that people with chronic illnesses, those who have previously suffered severe cases of COVID-19, and pregnant women are at the greatest risk. In particular, exposure to combustion byproducts during pregnancy may interfere with fetal development and can result in children being born with physical disabilities.

Together with the rain, chemical contaminants also seeped into the soil. Environmental expert Igor Shkradyuk said that the soil in Krasnodar Krai absorbed particularly large amounts of petroleum byproducts, with local residents reporting that the ground was covered with “an oily residue and black droplets.” Even in places where no residue formed, crops grown in open fields, including strawberries, fruit, and greens exposed to the rainfall, may be unsafe to consume.

The expert believes that newly hatched fish have suffered the most from the chemical precipitation. They emerged during the period of the attacks, and petroleum byproducts washed into rivers and lakes by the rain interfered with their development. Cats, dogs, and young birds are also affected by oil rain. Chemical contaminants can enter animals’ bodies when they groom themselves, particularly if animal rescue volunteers have not washed them with a special cleaning solution.

Shkradyuk added that in areas where oil rain fell but no oily residue formed, nature may be able to recover on its own. Microorganisms will eventually break down the remaining petroleum byproducts.

Strikes on oil refineries deprive Russia of oil revenues and disrupt air travel

 

According to estimates by the independent outlet Vot Tak, Ukraine carried out 158 strikes against Russia’s 24 largest oil refineries between the start of the full-scale invasion and May 21, 2026.

As a result of these attacks, refineries have repeatedly been forced to suspend operations. Repair times range from a few days to several months, depending on the extent of the damage and the availability of replacement parts. The situation is further complicated by the fact that, before the war, 80% of the components used at Russian refineries were imported, and existing stockpiles had already been exhausted by November 2023. U.S. and EU sanctions have made it impossible to quickly purchase new equipment. As a result, companies have turned to parallel imports while replacing some components, including hydrotreating and fuel oil cracking catalysts, with domestic alternatives.

Economist Nikolay Kulbaka said that refinery shutdowns and unplanned repairs have reduced government revenues by roughly 10% to 30%. According to Evgeny Borovikov, deputy CEO of the insurance broker Mains, the combined losses of oil companies have already exceeded 1 trillion rubles. The situation has been made even worse by new expenses, as refineries have had to spend vast sums on their own security, including purchasing and installing air defense fire units. The infrastructure crisis has also hit the state budget: according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance, revenue from oil and gas exports fell by more than 38% between January and April 2026 alone.

The losses sustained by oil companies have also affected insurers. Drone attacks have sharply increased the number of insurance claims, with companies paying compensation to refineries insured against acts of terrorism and sabotage. According to Kommersant, payouts for a single refinery can reach several hundred million rubles on average. As a result, insurance companies’ losses have more than doubled.

Ukrainian drone attacks have also disrupted airlines, forcing them to delay or cancel flights because of security concerns. The largest drone attack on Moscow, on June 18, 2026, resulted in 527 delayed or canceled flights. Diverting aircraft to alternate airports creates additional costs. In 2023, the airline Pobeda estimated that each extra hour of flight time cost around US$8,000. At the same time, airports in several Russian cities, including Anapa, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, and Elista, remain closed to civilian air traffic.

Gasoline prices surge as some regions impose sales limits

 

Drone attacks on oil refineries have prompted restrictions on gasoline sales across Russia. According to estimates by The Bell, by June 16, 2026, gas stations in 53 regions had introduced limits on gasoline purchases. The Federal Antimonopoly Service has also banned the resale of gasoline by private individuals. Ozon and Wildberries reject fuel product pages during moderation, while Avito removes listings that have already been published.

The restrictions are driven in part by panic buying. Amid reports of fuel shortages, many Russians began stockpiling gasoline. Long lines of people carrying fuel cans formed at gas stations, further worsening the crisis, as stations simply could not replenish supplies quickly enough.

The panic has also contributed to rising fuel prices. According to calculations by 7x7, the average price of AI-95 gasoline has increased by more than 6% since the beginning of the year. Data from the motorists’ website Autotraveler show that AI-98 now costs an average of 90 rubles per liter, AI-95 about 70 rubles, and diesel fuel around 80 rubles. In some regions, including Primorsky Krai, Tula, Tyumen, and Rostov oblasts, as well as the republics of Dagestan and Tyva, residents have reported paying as much as 100 rubles (approximately US$1.30) per liter for AI-95.

The deepening fuel crisis has forced the Russian authorities to take drastic measures. A complete ban on exports of petroleum products has been in force since April 1, but it has failed to stabilize the domestic market. By May, gas station chains had begun emergency purchases of gasoline from Belarus. Between May 1 and May 22, they imported 17.34 thousand tons of Belarusian gasoline, 58 times more than during the same period a year earlier. Most of those purchases consisted of AI-92 gasoline. On May 15, the wholesale price of Belarusian fuel reached 97,500 rubles (approximately US$1,290) per ton, 46% higher than the price of its Russian equivalent on the same day.

Economist Nikolay Kulbaka argues that the fuel crisis affects ordinary Russians more than the broader economy. In his view, residents of the regions are likely to reduce their use of private cars while the crisis continues.

"Let’s assume gasoline prices have risen by 10% [based on 2025 data]. People will simply drive 40 kilometers a day instead of 50 and walk more often. Overall, that’s bearable. Will people put up with it? Most likely, they will," Kulbaka said.

Drone attacks cause civilian casualties, destroy thousands of homes, and disrupt cultural life in Russia’s regions

 

According to estimates by 7x7, constant shelling and drone attacks have killed at least 1,198 civilians across 18 Russian regions since the beginning of the full-scale war with Ukraine. Most of the victims were in the border regions of Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk.

Alongside the growing death toll, the attacks have caused widespread destruction of residential property. For example, a strike on Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai in April 2026 damaged 92 homes, including 19 apartment buildings and 73 private houses. Residents of the border regions have suffered the greatest losses, with drones destroying around 35,000 houses and apartments.

 

The authorities have justified imposing internet restrictions as a way to counter drone attacks. According to the monitoring project Na Svyazi, around 20,000 localized internet shutdowns were recorded across Russian regions in just one year, beginning in May 2025. Experts estimate that these shutdowns have cost the country approximately 930 billion rubles.

However, internet and mobile network shutdowns are unlikely to stop modern drones, which can rely on satellite communications or navigate using pre-programmed routes.

Another visible consequence of the attacks has been the mass cancellation of public events and the closure of shopping malls, parks, and other public venues. Following a drone attack in 2025, authorities in Krasnodar Krai canceled large gatherings, including a family festival and sporting events.

Russia’s largest electronic music festival, Signal, was first moved from Kaluga Oblast to Chekhov in the Moscow region and was later relocated to Moscow altogether. Officials said they could not guarantee participants’ safety because of the threat of drone attacks.

The slowdown in cultural life has not been driven solely by government decisions. Artists and event organizers have also canceled tours and performances because of security concerns. For example, singer Navai canceled concerts scheduled for August 2025 in Sochi, Gelendzhik, Krasnodar, and Rostov-on-Don. The cancellation was reportedly linked to a drone attack on Sochi that occurred while rapper Akon was in the city.

The trend continued in 2026 when organizers canceled the Grushinsky Festival of bard music, traditionally held in Samara, citing “security concerns.” Organizers of independent festivals in Russia told the independent outlet Cherta that, in addition to drone attacks, they had canceled events because of the economic crisis and pressure from security services on festival attendees.

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